The South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecast indicates that warmer conditions are expected in most parts of the country in the late autumn and winter, while significant rainfall is expected mainly over the southern and eastern coastal parts of South Africa.
In its seasonal climate watch released on Tuesday, the weather service said the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a neutral state.
Current predictions indicate a rapid shift over the next few months toward an El Niño state [associated with hotter and drier conditions], with further strengthening expected through spring and into the start of the next summer season.
“Caution is advised, however, as the prediction skill of the ENSO phenomena can be limited during the winter months, and therefore it is highly recommended to keep track of the forecasts during and after winter,” SAWS said.
Above-normal rainfall is expected over the south-eastern and eastern coastal areas during late autumn, with the eastern coastal areas remaining likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the winter season.
“This is likely to bring positive impacts for crop and livestock production. However, the south-western part of the country, which normally receives significant rainfall during the winter season, is expected to receive below-normal rainfall during this period.
“Therefore, the relevant decision-makers are encouraged to advise farmers in these regions to practice soil and water conservation, proper water harvesting and storage, and other appropriate farming practices,” SAWS said.
The weather service warned that the wetter-than-normal conditions may increase the risk of localised flooding, temporary waterlogging, and poor drainage in vulnerable coastal and low-lying areas, particularly in settlements located near rivers, estuaries, and flood-prone zones.
Such conditions may elevate the potential for waterborne disease outbreaks, contamination of water sources, and water-related injuries or accidents.
In contrast, the south-western and southern coastal regions are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during winter, which may place pressure on local water availability and hygiene conditions in some communities if dry conditions persist.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are also expected to be above normal across most parts of the country during autumn and early winter.
These warmer-than-usual conditions may increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, especially among vulnerable groups such as older persons, young children, people with chronic illnesses, and those working outdoors.
Elevated temperatures may also heighten exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation, increasing the likelihood of sunburn, skin damage, and other UV- related health impacts.
“Communities are therefore encouraged to remain alert to both heat- and rainfall-related health risks by staying hydrated, limiting unnecessary exposure to heat, using sun protection, avoiding flooded areas, and ensuring safe water and sanitation practices.
“Health authorities and disaster management structures are advised to strengthen public health messaging and ensure the timely dissemination of heat-health information, flood alerts, and hygiene awareness measures to support preparedness and response,” SAWS said.
The forecast is updated monthly, and users are advised to monitor the updated forecasts, as there is a possibility for them to change, especially the longer lead-time forecasts.
“Moreover, farmers are advised to keep monitoring the weekly and monthly forecasts issued by the SAWS. Farmers are also advised to keep monitoring advisories from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, and make the necessary adjustments accordingly,” the weather service said. -SAnews.gov.za
