The South African Weather Service (SAWS) seasonal forecast shows that parts of South Africa will receive significant rainfall in winter and early spring.
“During the winter seasons, it is only the south-western, southern and eastern coastal areas that receive significant rainfall. The eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during winter and early spring, whilst below-normal rainfall is expected for the south-western and southern regions,” the Seasonal Climate Watch report for June to October 2026 said.
According to the weather service, minimum and maximum temperatures are largely expected to be above-normal for most parts of South Africa during the winter season.
These weather conditions have been attributed to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is currently still in a neutral state.
Current predictions indicate that it will rapidly move towards an El Niño state within the next month and continue to strengthen up to early summer and last at least until the end of the 2026/27 summer season.
The anticipated above-normal rainfall conditions in the eastern coastal areas during winter and early spring are likely to boost surface runoff into dams and reservoirs, substantially increasing water storage capacity and availability for purposes such as household, industrial, and agricultural use.
Such conditions are likely to relieve pressure on water-scarce regions, including areas that are known to receive significant rainfall during winter seasons.
However, intensive rainfall may overwhelm stormwater and sewage systems, resulting in flash floods and flooding in areas prone to flooding, including low-lying bridges.
In addition, during this period, below-normal rainfall conditions are expected in the south-western and southern coastal areas.
“Such conditions, coupled with largely forecasted above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures for most parts of the country during the forecast period, are likely to increase water loss, adding pressure on water-scarce regions.
“Furthermore, minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across the country during the forecast period. This is likely to increase the cooling demand, particularly during early spring. Decision-makers should note these possible outcomes and communicate with affected businesses and communities,” SAWS said.
The June to October 2026 seasonal forecast suggests potential health implications associated with rainfall variability and above-normal temperatures in most parts of South Africa.
SAWS said above-normal rainfall forecast for parts of the eastern coastal areas during winter and early spring may increase the likelihood of localised flooding, poor drainage, water source contamination, waterborne diseases and water-related injuries, particularly in low-lying and flood-prone communities.
“Below-normal rainfall forecast for parts of the south-western and southern coastal areas during late winter and early spring may place additional pressure on local water availability, hygiene and sanitation conditions should dry conditions persist.
“Above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures forecast over most parts of South Africa may increase heat-related health risks, particularly among vulnerable groups such as children, older persons, outdoor workers and people with chronic illnesses,” the weather service said.
Warmer conditions may also increase ultraviolet exposure during clear-sky periods, with associated risks such as sunburn and longer-term skin damage. -SAnews.gov.za
