By Morapedi Sibeko
As per Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), population trends: "are never just numbers; they reflect the shifting values, aspirations, and challenges of society at a given moment."
South Africa’s population data for 2025 tells an intriguing story about how our families are changing. According to Stats SA, the country’s total fertility rate has dropped from an average of 2.78 children per woman in 2008 to just 2.21 in 2025. In plain terms, if current patterns are anything to go by, today’s average South African woman will have just over two children in her lifetime.
The change has been gradual.
Around 2016, official birth registration records show a notable decline in births.
The numbers have been declining since 2020. It is a part of a global trend, not limited to South Africa, as several nations record fewer births annually.
The consistent decline in birth rates is no coincidence. It is a reflection of the economic and social realities shaping people’s choices.
Bringing up a child is a significant financial commitment. Between the cost of healthcare, education, housing, and even the price of nappies, the lifetime expense of parenting can be daunting.
The primary cause of declining birth rates worldwide, according to the UN Population Fund's State of World Population report, is economic obstacles.
It warns that an increasing number of people are being denied the freedom to start families because of high living costs, persistent gender inequality, and uncertainty about the future.
This is where constitutional rights matter, says Jacques van Zuydam, who leads the Population and Development Directorate.
South Africa’s Constitution protects women’s reproductive rights, meaning fertility trends should be the outcome of unhindered individual choices by the country’s roughly 30 million women, choices about whether to have children, when to have them, and how many to have.
“If the result of these choices adds up to a decline in the total birth rate, society has to adjust itself thereto.
Social and cultural shifts are also part of the picture. The typical marriage age is currently in the early 30s in the majority of countries, including South Africa, according to Our World in Data. More people are putting off getting married and starting a family to concentrate on their education and professions.
With better access to family planning and healthcare, women have more control over whether and when they become mothers.
Even as these changes have an impact on demographics, they also represent personal preference and the growth of options for women, something Van Zuydam says should be embraced as part of social progress.
And then there’s the myth that refuses to retire, the idea that the Child Support Grant (CSG) encourages women to have children. The evidence tells a very different story. Research such as Common Concerns and Misconceptions: What Does the Evidence Say? shows that the grant has improved women’s financial independence and decision-making power, but there is no sign it drives higher birth rates.
In fact, with birth rates declining, it’s clear that social grants cannot be the reason women fall pregnant. Supporting this, The Role of Social Grants in Economically Enabling South African Women notes that pregnancies among young women have not been increasing over the past two decades, even as the grant expanded.
Van Zuydam also highlights that lower fertility rates present opportunities: the chance to reap the so-called demographic dividend, if the right investments are made into children and youth; the potential to lower unemployment. If young people are equipped with the skills to join the mainstream economy; and rapid technological advancement, particularly in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. More economic opportunities for women, he says, should also accelerate gender equality and equity.
This tendency has complicated repercussions. Although fewer births would relieve some of the strain on the healthcare and education systems, they also bring up issues with economic growth, the future workforce, and how to care for an aging population.
These are concerns for today, not tomorrow, and they necessitate new approaches to planning, policy, and community support.
South Africa’s declining birth rate should be seen less as a crisis and more as a reflection of changing priorities, economic realities, and an evolving approach to family life.
The real challenge and opportunity is in how we adapt to these changes while ensuring that people have the genuine freedom to decide the size and timing of their families.
*Morapedi Sibeko is Acting Director: Content Development and Events management at the Department of Social Development
