EU summit not enough to ease sovereign pressure

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

New York - Three major ratings agencies said on Monday that last week's EU summit was not enough to ease pressure on euro-zone sovereign debt since no decisive initiatives were adopted, warning a review of the region's credit.

"The communique issued by European policymakers after the recent euro area summit offers few new measures and therefore does not change our analysis of the rising threat to the cohesion of the euro area and the further shocks to which it and the wider EU remain prone,"
Moody's Investors Service said in a press release.

The ratings agency said it planned to complete its re-evaluation of all EU countries during the first quarter of 2012.

"As we announced in November, unless credit market conditions stabilize in the near future, our ratings of all EU sovereigns will need to be revisited."

Moody's was echoed by its rival Fitch, which agreed that "the lack of a comprehensive solution has increased short-term pressure on euro-zone sovereign credit profiles and ratings."

Fitch appreciated the positive developments of the latest EU summit, including a framework for a more viable euro-zone and ultimately greater fiscal union, but it saw no "comprehensive solution" to the current crisis and predicted "a significant economic downturn across the region" in the short term.

Meanwhile, Jean-Michel Six, chief economist of Standard & Poor's, also said the EU summit agreement was a significant step forward, but not enough.

Last week, S&P put 15 euro-zone countries under credit watch for a potential downgrade, saying it expected a "review of eurozone sovereign ratings as soon as possible following the EU summit", and "depending on the score changes, if any, that our rating committees agree are appropriate for each sovereign, we believe that ratings could be lowered by up to one notch for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg, and by up to two notches for the other governments".