Pretoria – Whether you think of yourself as an environmental pundit or you’re just simply interested to know what the future might look like, the 2050 Pathways Calculator will allow you to explore a range of possible scenarios linked to energy consumption and emissions.
Already in existence in the UK, the South African version of the 2050 Pathways Calculator was launched on Wednesday.
Developed by the Department of Environmental Affairs in collaboration with the United Kingdom’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the British High Commission, the 2050 Pathways Calculator for South Africa (http://2050calc.ercresources.org.za/your-pathway/) is a simple and transparent tool for demonstrating the different pathways of energy and emissions development over the coming decades.
This online application allows people to explore the combinations of means to reduce emissions, while matching energy supply and demand.
The calculator is just one way to help the country respond effectively to climate change. It can be used to engage technicians, policy makers and the general public on how the country’s emissions could change over time.
Shaping the future
Speaking at the launch, the Department of Environmental Affairs’ Deputy Director General: Climate Change and Air Quality, Judy Beaumont, said the calculator was a useful planning tool.
“As you are aware, the energy sector is the largest contributor to the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because of our dependence on coal for our primary energy needs. Hence the largest mitigation contributions will have to come from reduced emissions from energy generation and use.
“The calculator provides us with an opportunity to explore energy choices and to understand the associated greenhouse gas emissions,” said Beaumont, who was speaking on behalf of Water and Environmental Affairs Minister Edna Molewa.
Beaumont said the 2050 Pathways Calculator does not recommend any one scenario or pathway over the others, but it provides the user with a way to understand the realm of possible scenarios and their implications.
“For example, users of the 2050 calculator can boost energy supply by building additional wind turbines or solar panels, or coal or nuclear. Or they can reduce energy demand by insulating people’s homes and changing travel behaviour.
“The system will show the implications of that selected pathway, and it enables the user to visually track how energy flows through the system, what the greenhouse gas implications are, and even how much the new energy system will cost to build,” she said.
She also acknowledged the funding partners -- the DECC and the British High Commission -- for their support in the development of the 2050 Pathways Calculator for South Africa.
In October 2011, the department published the National Climate Change Response White Paper Policy, which outlines key elements in the overall approach to South Africa’s transition to a lower carbon and climate resilient economy and society.
The policy also specifically calls for the “design, development and roll-out of a climate change awareness campaign that makes all South Africans more aware of the challenge of climate change and the need for appropriate responses and choices at individual and community level”.
Shale gas report
The 2050 Pathways Calculator launch also saw the release of the ‘Greenhouse Gas Emissions Associated with Shale Gas’ research report.
The report was commissioned by the department in response to growing global and national interest in shale gas production as new reserves are discovered and exploration activities increase, as well as the environmental debates that this has created.
It seeks to understand the implications of potential shale gas extraction, production and use in the South African context.
According to the research, if shale gas replaces other fossil fuels, certain uses of shale gas could have a significantly positive impact on greenhouse gas mitigation efforts. However, the report noted that it may be only some uses that have a positive impact, as not all uses have a positive impact.
“Furthermore, it must also be understood that if shale gas is used in addition to, as opposed to replacement of other fossil fuels, then this simply means more greenhouse gas emissions, albeit possibly at a reduced emission growth rate,” the report stated.
Also, in addition to the uncertainties associated with this shale gas research, whether or not South Africa has an economically viable shale gas resource remains the greatest uncertainty.
Commenting on the report, Beaumont said the data analysed was not South Africa-specific, given that shale gas extraction and production had not taken place in the country at the time of publishing.
“Much of the data drawn on in the literature reviewed, stems from the USA. More research is required, particularly on direct measurements of GHG emissions, in order to better understand the GHG emissions intensity of shale gas extraction, production and use in South Africa.
“If there is one immediately implementable thing that can be taken from this research is that while we responsibly explore our shale gas potential, we should vigorously continue with our ambitious rollout of the country’s most climate-friendly energy programme that is based on a well-established resource base, namely, South Africa’s world leading Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP),” Beaumont said.
She further challenged private sector and civil society to play a fundamental role as government alone cannot manage the transition to a low carbon economy and society. – SAnews.gov.za
