Government has welcomed Moody’s decision to revise South Africa’s sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to positive, while affirming the country’s domestic and foreign-currency long-term ratings at Ba2.
According to the National Treasury, this makes South Africa the only Group of Twenty (G20) country currently on a positive outlook from Moody’s.
The decision comes amid negative ratings momentum globally, with more than 23 sovereign credit ratings negatively affected since the start of the current Middle East conflict.
Moody’s attributed its decision to South Africa’s gradually strengthening fiscal performance and sustained commitment to structural reforms, with prospects of increasingly tangible results.
"The agency expects a rising primary surplus and gradually improving debt-service costs to stabilise the government debt burden in the near term," the National Treasury said.
It said that while the Middle East conflict poses a risk to South Africa’s near-term growth outlook, Moody’s expects the policy response to remain measured and macroeconomic stability to be preserved.
The agency also expects stronger investment, supported by ongoing reforms, to gradually lift real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to around 2% by 2028 and support fiscal improvements.
Moody’s expects the primary fiscal surplus to rise to around 2% in 2028, supporting a gradual decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio.
National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said the latest decision by Moody’s further confirms South Africa’s improving fiscal credibility, driven by a turnaround in the sustainability of public finances.
"We continue to focus on our two fiscal objectives: ensuring that revenue remains higher than non-interest spending, and maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio that declines from the current year onwards. We plan to embed the fiscal turnaround through the introduction of a fiscal anchor for South Africa," Pieterse said.
National Treasury reiterated that government remains firmly committed to reducing public debt while maintaining social spending and accelerating structural reforms to support inclusive growth and job creation.
The positive outlook is Moody’s first for South Africa since 2007, which was followed by an upgrade of the rating itself in 2009.
The decision follows S&P Global Ratings’ one-notch upgrade of South Africa’s rating in November 2025, while retaining its positive outlook. - SAnews.gov.za
